Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 26.989458 32.146612 37.784462 44.375097 51.836703 59.990912 69.543500
2025-08-03 19.741742 26.652704 34.931668 45.445459 58.298251 73.352876 92.162709
2025-08-10 14.903035 22.320129 31.886462 44.839680 61.606425 82.250655 109.230453
2025-08-17 12.009097 19.685463 30.228548 45.277862 65.667913 91.767418 127.063345
2025-08-24 9.708841 17.341852 28.457914 45.101175 68.577773 99.652690 142.913669
2025-08-31 7.616115 14.859410 26.049290 43.605480 69.343052 104.499576 154.771052
2025-09-07 6.483156 13.659771 25.319941 44.340570 73.115117 113.423506 172.294453
2025-09-14 5.243054 12.019336 23.643206 43.396898 74.264155 118.624722 184.802954
2025-09-21 4.579566 11.282090 23.314298 44.458990 78.371952 128.108823 203.552503
2025-09-28 3.583436 9.683381 21.279197 42.515312 77.664842 130.478146 212.176670
2025-10-05 3.217207 9.298166 21.339565 44.035689 82.422715 141.054307 232.956362
2025-10-12 2.844433 8.816934 21.148594 45.074783 86.420032 150.596039 252.489518
2025-10-19 2.507165 8.390007 21.094712 46.509194 91.417616 162.290900 276.304804
2025-10-26 2.175858 7.903094 20.868859 47.633822 96.012050 173.644331 300.175723
2025-11-02 1.758267 7.063813 19.775813 47.006197 97.535003 180.181951 316.904260
2025-11-09 1.487462 6.545393 19.285419 47.460978 100.922517 189.780563 338.609790
2025-11-16 1.223037 5.951621 18.522418 47.277635 103.121119 197.486110 357.554660
2025-11-23 0.938046 5.168775 17.168599 45.725325 102.689610 200.782178 369.577039
2025-11-30 0.804078 4.863721 16.935880 46.488292 106.561484 211.376846 393.538225
2025-12-07 0.627768 4.307285 15.950524 45.508816 107.050127 216.216979 408.305809
2025-12-14 0.547398 4.114876 15.908732 46.611193 111.586808 228.140442 434.939972
2025-12-21 0.397212 3.504015 14.566896 44.593627 109.860861 229.078474 443.459049
2025-12-28 0.356000 3.419455 14.753625 46.171862 115.379783 242.932441 473.816169